Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Middle East crude oil exports have surpassed pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler showed that exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February 2025, exports averaged 18 million bpd.

The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd as of October 1. This includes transits via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, exports from terminals, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days ending September 30.

Attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz continued, with at least seven incidents reported. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. The tanker had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack daily in the region since October 2.

Shipping intelligence firm Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' It suggested that Iranian forces might be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting specific vessels.