Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks
Middle East oil exports have rebounded to pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from Kpler, crude oil exports surpassed pre-war figures on four out of seven days in the final week of September. Exports peaked between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year.
The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd as of October 1. This includes shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Overall, the region's exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days leading up to September 30.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also hit their highest monthly level since February. However, attacks on tankers continued, with at least seven incidents reported. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1, causing a fire onboard, though all crew members were safely evacuated.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks warned of a heightened and unpredictable threat to merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Current intelligence suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, targeting available radar signatures.