Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surpassed pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing tensions and attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from Kpler, exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, peaking between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the conflict began in late February, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day.

The 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day as of October 1, with shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes. Total exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the week ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the strait reached their highest monthly level since February.

However, security remains a major concern. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were evacuated safely. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman.

Marisks warned of a heightened and unpredictable threat to merchant vessels transiting the strait, suggesting that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific ships. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.