Middle East oil exports rebound despite Strait of Hormuz attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler revealed that exports surpassed pre-war figures on four of the last seven days of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February 2025, exports averaged around 18 million bpd.

The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd as of October 1, according to Kpler. This includes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes. Overall, the region's total exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30.

However, the security situation remains volatile. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board. The tanker, which had recently unloaded 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude, was owned by the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company.

Marisks warned of a heightened threat to merchant vessels transiting the strait, suggesting that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement zones. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented at least one attack per day in the region since October 2.