Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have rebounded to pre-war levels in late September despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from trade intelligence firm Kpler, exports surpassed the pre-war average of about 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days in the final week of September, reaching 19.5 million to 22.5 million bpd.

The recovery was achieved through alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. In September, about 40% of crude left the Gulf without crossing Hormuz, compared to only 17% before the Iran war. Kpler reported that over 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, a stark contrast to the pre-war period when almost no Gulf crude changed tankers there. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also increased exports through the Red Sea and pipelines, respectively.

The primary exporters in the region were Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. However, Iran's exports remain significantly below pre-war averages due to US policies. Attacks on vessels around Hormuz continue, with at least seven incidents reported in recent weeks. On October 1, a tanker named Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks.