Middle East oil exports rebound despite Strait of Hormuz attacks
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged past pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data from Kpler revealed that exports exceeded pre-war figures on September 24 and from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began in February, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day. As of October 1, the 7-day moving average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes.
The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude vessels with turned-off transponders to avoid detection. Before the war, the strait handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for 20% of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.
Attacks on tankers continued in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents reported. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire. All crew members were evacuated safely. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack daily in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks warned of a heightened and unpredictable threat to merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Current intelligence suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within those zones. Physical presence in the engagement zone at the relevant time could itself represent the primary exposure.