Middle East oil exports rebound despite tanker attacks and Strait of Hormuz risks

Middle East crude oil exports surged above pre-war levels in the final week of September 2026, despite escalating tanker attacks in the region. Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler revealed that exports peaked between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and between September 27 and 29. This exceeded the region’s pre-conflict average of 18 million bpd, maintained from March 2025 to February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran broke out.

The recovery in exports highlights the industry’s shift toward alternative transport strategies to mitigate risks in the volatile Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 40% of Middle Eastern oil exports now bypass the Strait entirely, relying on pipelines and offshore ship-to-ship transfers in safer waters like the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are playing key roles, with Saudi Arabia reactivating its East, West pipeline to the Red Sea terminal of Yanbu on September 22, and the UAE routing oil to its Fujairah terminal outside the strait.

Despite the record volume of outflows, maritime intelligence firms note that conditions remain far from normal. Tanker attacks persist as a daily threat, and Iran’s own volumes continue to be severely restricted by a US counter-blockade on its ports. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has organized a highly coordinated, covert system of naval-escorted transits, known as the Southern Omani Channel Shuttle, to protect cargo and overcome disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The return of Middle Eastern crude has significantly altered the global economic landscape. Brent crude slipped slightly to $101.90 a barrel on October 5, while US WTI crude sits at $90.49. Prices remain elevated due to a massive cumulative deficit of over 1 billion barrels of lost supply since the war began. The G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from their emergency stockpiles to suppress soaring inflation and prevent a potential US ban on diesel exports.