Middle East Oil Exports Rebound to Pre-War Levels

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels according to JP Morgan analysts, who estimate daily oil flows at around 17.5 million barrels, or nearly 98% of previous levels.

Fuel exports were also seen ramping up in September, reaching an average of 3 million barrels per day, which is roughly 58% of pre-war levels. This was described by JP Morgan's commodity analysts as 'a remarkable recovery for a region still at war.'

Oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have specifically returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia.

However, Goldman Sachs took a more optimistic view, estimating oil outflows in the Persian Gulf at around 23.3 million barrels daily, which is on par with 2025 averages.