Middle East Oil Exports Recover Above Pre-War Levels
Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, have surpassed pre-war levels for the first time since the U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran began in late February. This rebound is driven by Gulf producers shifting to pipelines and alternative shipping routes to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Data from maritime tracking firm Kpler, cited by Agence France-Presse, shows that weekly oil shipments have exceeded the pre-conflict average of roughly 18 million barrels per day. Crude exports alone returned to pre-war levels in September, with at least 16.5 million barrels per day leaving the region excluding Iran.
Around 40% of oil exports now bypass Hormuz, while much of the crude that still crosses the strait is transferred between tankers offshore. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played key roles in this shift, utilizing pipelines to transport oil. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which connects its main oil-producing areas to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, resumed operations on September 22 after being shut down on September 11. The UAE also benefits from an alternative export route through its pipeline connecting Abu Dhabi's oil fields with Fujairah.
The recovery in shipments has begun to weigh on oil prices. Brent crude for December delivery fell 0.79% to $101.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery declined 1.20% to $90.02. This price drop is attributed to higher Middle East exports and the Group of Seven countries' decision to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that rising supplies from the Gulf and the G7 release should help push gasoline and diesel prices lower.
Despite the recovery, underlying risks remain. Shipping costs are higher, exporters are using less efficient routes, and alternative pipelines are operating at maximum capacity. Iran continues to face restrictions on its own oil exports due to a U.S. counterblockade targeting its ports. The conflict's uncertainty persists, with no guarantees when military tensions remain active. However, for now, the region's oil exporters have managed to restore volumes to and above pre-war levels, helping ease pressure on global oil prices.