Middle East Oil Exports Recover as Global Prices Ease

Oil prices dipped slightly this week as Middle East supply lines showed signs of recovery. Data from JPMorgan revealed that crude shipments through key regional chokepoints have rebounded to 98% of pre-war levels. This recovery was accompanied by a strengthening US dollar, which further contributed to the easing of crude futures.

Crude futures softened, with West Texas Intermediate trading near $89 per barrel and Brent crude settling near $100 per barrel on Tuesday. The market easing followed confirmation that Middle East crude exports reached 17.5 million barrels per day, while refined product flows, including diesel and gasoline, recovered to 3 million barrels per day, representing 58% of pre-war volumes.

Gulf oil producers continue to navigate heightened maritime security risks to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq is actively seeking additional tanker chartering capacity to maintain maritime output, while Kuwait confirmed its crude production has restored to approximately 75% of pre-conflict levels. Saudi Aramco also instituted sharp price cuts for its flagship Arab Light crude grade bound for Asian buyers in November.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 102.5, reaching its highest level since April 2025, driven by a weakening euro amid political uncertainty in Spain and fiscal instability in France. The US dollar gained despite softer economic indicators, including September US non-farm payrolls showing an addition of 29,000 jobs against expected forecasts of 90,000, alongside an elevated unemployment rate of 4.2%. Financial markets are pricing in an 80% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting.