Middle East oil exports recover but tanker attacks escalate in Hormuz Strait

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to levels seen before the US-Israeli war with Iran, despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping data revealed that exports surpassed pre-war volumes on four of the final seven days of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd as of October 1, with exports moving through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman.

The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude vessels that may have turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection.

However, security threats persist, with at least seven tanker attacks reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest incident involved the Very Large Crude Carrier Kazimah III, which was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz port on September 17.

Shipping intelligence firm Marisks warned of a heightened and unpredictable threat to merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The agency suggested that Iranian forces might be launching missiles into predefined engagement zones, rather than targeting specific ships. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.