Middle East Oil Exports Recover Despite Strait of Hormuz Security Threats

Middle Eastern crude oil exports have shown a notable rebound, surpassing pre-war averages on four of seven days in late September. According to provisional data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler, exports ranged from 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and from September 27 to 29. These figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminal loadings, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

The recovery is significant given the earlier disruptions caused by conflicts around the Strait of Hormuz. Producers have adapted by relying more on alternative routes, such as pipelines and Red Sea pathways, with about 40% of regional crude now bypassing Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played key roles in reducing dependence on the strait.

Despite the improvements, security risks persist. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported multiple incidents involving tankers in and around Hormuz, including a tanker struck by an unknown projectile on October 4. Kpler's data, while provisional, highlights the challenges in accurately measuring oil movements due to factors like ship-to-ship transfers and vessels operating without tracking signals.

OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman, agreed on October 4 to maintain November production levels, stressing the need to safeguard maritime routes and energy infrastructure. The immediate question for oil markets is whether the recent export rebound can be sustained amid ongoing security threats and attacks.