Middle East Oil Exports Recover Despite Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Middle East crude oil exports have rebounded despite ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler reveals that regional crude shipments surpassed pre-war averages on four days in the final week of September. Exports peaked at 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 24 and from September 27 to 29. Before the US-Israel conflict with Iran, the region averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.

Over the seven days ending September 30, total flows of crude, refined products, and other liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd. By October 1, the seven-day average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Gulf of Oman. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) traffic through the strait also hit its highest monthly level since February.

Iran claims US warships have retreated from its coastline. IRGC commander Ali Fadavi asserted that only 3 million to 4 million bpd currently pass through the Strait of Hormuz, calling the volume insignificant compared to pre-war levels. He also claimed no US vessels were present in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Sea of Oman, or northern Indian Ocean, warning of vulnerabilities to IRGC attacks.

The Kpler data excludes vessels that may have disabled their tracking systems to avoid detection. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2, raising concerns over commercial shipping safety. Iranian officials insist the waterway will remain closed until Washington agrees to Tehran’s proposed seven-day reopening plan.