Middle East oil exports rise above pre-war levels amid security risks
Middle East crude oil exports briefly surpassed pre-war levels in late September, despite ongoing security threats in the Strait of Hormuz. According to vessel-tracking company Kpler, exports reached between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days, including September 24 and September 27-29. Prior to the conflict with Iran, average exports hovered around 18 million bpd from March 2025 to February 2026.
As of October 1, the seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. These figures encompass shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, terminal exports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. Despite the risks, the data suggests that oil and gas supplies continue to flow, albeit under heightened uncertainty.
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents involving tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The firm warned that commercial vessels face an escalating and unpredictable threat, which could lead to higher transit costs and potential shipping disruptions as vessel traffic increases.