Middle East oil exports rise above pre-war levels amid tanker attacks

Middle East oil exports surged in September, surpassing pre-war levels for the first time since the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began. Shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that the region's crude exports averaged 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by September 30, exceeding pre-war figures on 14 days that month. This uptick comes despite rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

The export boom was primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, which increased cargoes from both the Red Sea and the Gulf. Iraq also saw a rise in shipments after securing permission from Iran for its tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Vortexa noted that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hit 18.6 million bpd, matching pre-conflict levels and the 10-year seasonal average.

However, the resurgence in exports has been overshadowed by a wave of tanker attacks. Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, reported at least seven incidents in the past week alone. Two vessels, the Kazimah III and the Lipsi, were struck by unknown projectiles, causing fires and damage but no casualties. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented at least one attack per day since October 2 in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden.

Marisks suggested that the recent attacks may not be deliberately targeting individual vessels but could involve Iranian forces launching missiles into predetermined engagement zones. Before the war, the strait handled about 125 large commercial vessels daily, accounting for 20% of global crude and LNG supply. The current threat level remains heightened, with shipping intelligence warning of an increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.