Middle East oil exports rise despite Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East surpassed pre-war levels in four of the final week of September, according to shipping data released on Monday. The region's crude exports peaked between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29. This surpasses the average of 18 million bpd recorded between March 2025 and February, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began. On October 1, the seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes.

Overall exports of crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest monthly level since February. However, these figures exclude vessels that may have turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection.

Despite the rise in exports, attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz continued. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents, including an attack on the very large crude carrier Kazimah III on October 1. The vessel was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard, but all crew members were safely evacuated. Kazimah III had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the strait face a heightened and unpredictable kinetic threat, suggesting that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific vessels.