Middle East oil exports rise despite tanker attacks in Hormuz Strait

Middle East oil exports surpassed pre-war levels in September, according to shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa. The region's crude exports averaged 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 30, with cargoes exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days. This surge comes despite a rise in tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

The export increase was primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, which ramped up shipments to regain market share. Iraq also resumed loading Basrah crude inside the strait after securing Iranian permission for its tankers. Vortexa noted that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hit 18.6 million bpd, returning to pre-conflict levels.

However, the situation remains tense, with at least seven tanker attacks reported in the past week. The VLCC Kazimah III and the Aframax tanker Lipsi were both struck by unknown projectiles, causing fires and engine room damage. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported daily attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned of a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat' due to the sharp increase in traffic. The current intelligence suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting individual vessels.