Middle East oil exports rise despite tanker attacks in Strait of Hormuz
Middle East crude oil exports have rebounded to pre-war levels despite ongoing tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to preliminary data from ship-tracking company Kpler, exports surged to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in late September. This exceeds the region's pre-war average of 18 million bpd, recorded from March 2025 to February this year. The seven-day average through 1 October stood at 18.5 million bpd, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Including oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids, total shipments from the region averaged 22.4 million bpd over the final seven days of September. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the strait also hit their highest monthly level since February. However, the data excludes vessels that may have switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection.
Amid this surge in shipping activity, attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz have continued. Maritime intelligence company Marisks reported at least seven incidents through 3 October. One involved the very large crude carrier (VLCC) Kazimah III, which was struck by an unidentified projectile on 1 October, triggering a fire on board. All crew members were reportedly evacuated safely. The vessel was last seen carrying 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude oil before unloading its cargo at Ras Markaz Port on the Omani coast on 17 September.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported at least one attack each day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since 2 October. Marisks noted that the sharp increase in vessel traffic means commercial ships transiting the strait face an increasingly high and unpredictable risk of attack. However, the company suggested that the latest incidents did not necessarily indicate that specific vessels were deliberately targeted. Available information suggested that Iranian forces may have fired missiles at predetermined areas, which then detected and locked onto targets based on radar signals from vessels in those areas.