Middle East oil exports spike despite Strait of Hormuz tensions

Middle East oil exports have surged beyond pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing regional tensions. Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler shows that crude exports exceeded pre-war averages on four of the last seven days of September, reaching 19.5-22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). Before the US-Israel conflict with Iran began, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February 2026.

However, senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi dismissed the significance of these exports in a televised interview. He claimed that only 3-4 million bpd are currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz, calling the volume ‘negligible’ compared to pre-war traffic. Fadavi also asserted that no US vessels were present in the Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Sea of Oman, or northern Indian Ocean, leaving US warships ‘100 percent vulnerable’ to IRGC attacks.

The rise in exports comes amid reports of increased attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Aden. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in these regions since October 2. Meanwhile, Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US accepts Tehran’s seven-day plan to reopen the waterway.

Kpler’s data also revealed a spike in liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September, reaching the highest monthly level since February. The figures exclude vessels that may have avoided detection by turning off their automatic identification systems.