Middle East Oil Exports Stage Resilient Recovery Amid Ongoing Conflict

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded to their highest level since the war with Iran began, defying predictions of continued disruption. According to industry analysts, September saw a significant increase in crude tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with Lloyds List data showing a steady upward curve since mid-July.

The revival is attributed to various factors, including the use of oil shuttles and ship-to-ship transfers, as well as the Saudi East-West pipeline. The pipeline, damaged in an attack by Iranian-aligned Houthi militants on September 10, has reportedly regained some operational capacity.

However, refineries in the region continue to face bottlenecks, leading to a global spike in diesel prices. European Union figures show record-high diesel pump prices, while the International Energy Agency notes that much of this issue stems from the Persian Gulf. Iranian attacks on refineries have led to a collapse in output, with up to 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity unavailable.

While crude prices have retreated from recent highs, industry analysts suggest that the risks to shipping have not disappeared and remain priced into the market.