Middle East Oil Exports Surge Despite Rising Tanker Attacks in Hormuz Strait

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged above pre-war levels in recent days, despite a rise in tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from Kpler, exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February 2025, exports averaged 18 million bpd.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, has seen increased traffic, with about 125 large commercial vessels passing through daily. However, attacks on tankers continue, with at least seven incidents reported by shipping intelligence firm Marisks. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1, causing a fire onboard, though all crew members were evacuated safely.

Marisks warns that merchant vessels face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat' due to the recent surge in traffic. The agency suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined 'kill boxes,' targeting vessels within those areas rather than individually selected ships. This escalation in tensions poses significant risks to the stability of oil exports from the region.