Middle East Oil Exports Surge Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Middle Eastern crude oil exports have surged past prewar levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from Kpler, exports exceeded prewar levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The average exports before the US-Israeli war with Iran, which began on February 28, were around 18 million barrels per day. The seven-day average for crude exports as of October 1 was 18.5 million barrels per day, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Total shipments of crude oil, petroleum products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day during the seven days ending September 30. Additionally, the number of liquefied natural gas cargoes passing through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest monthly level since February. The data excludes vessels that may have transited the strait with their automatic identification systems turned off to avoid detection.

Despite the increased exports, maritime intelligence firm Marisks reported continued attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. At least seven incidents were reported, including an attack on the VLCC Kazma 3 on October 1, which triggered a fire on board. The vessel was unloading two million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz terminal in Oman on September 17. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks warned that commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face an increasingly volatile threat. The firm suggested that Iranian forces may be firing missiles into predetermined engagement areas, where weapons can lock onto available radar signals. Simply being present in these areas at the relevant time could pose a significant danger.