Middle East Oil Exports Surge Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Middle East oil exports surpassed pre-war levels in September, according to shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa. Despite rising attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers increased cargo shipments. The seven-day moving average for crude exports hit 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, exceeding pre-war levels on 14 days in September. Before September, exports matched or exceeded pre-war levels only on a few days in June and July, following a lapsed memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.

The export surge was driven by Saudi Arabia, which ramped up shipments from both the Red Sea and the Gulf. Iraq also resumed oil tanker passages through the Strait of Hormuz after securing Iranian permission. Vortexa reported that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million barrels per day, exceeding the 10-year seasonal average. Senior market analyst Xavier Tang noted that the increase in supplies will help alleviate tightness in the oil market, particularly for Asian refiners.

Liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to their highest since February. However, tanker attacks continued, with at least seven incidents reported in the past week. The very large crude carrier Kazimah III and the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi were struck by unknown projectiles, causing damage and fires. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.

Marisks, a shipping intelligence service, warned of a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat' due to the sharp increase in traffic. Current intelligence suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting individual vessels deliberately. Before the Iran war began on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, accounting for 20% of global crude and LNG supply.