Middle East Oil Exports Surge Despite Strait of Hormuz Risks

Middle East crude oil exports briefly surpassed pre-war levels on four days in late September, despite ongoing security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Data from vessel-tracking company Kpler showed exports ranging from 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd) during the final week of September, exceeding the average of 18 million bpd recorded between March 2025 and February 2026 before the conflict with Iran began.

The spike occurred on September 24 and from September 27 to 29. As of October 1, the seven-day moving average of crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd. The data includes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as terminal exports and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Despite the increased exports, shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents involving tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial vessels continue to face unpredictable threats while transiting the strait, which could lead to higher transit costs and potential shipping disruptions as vessel traffic intensifies.