Middle East oil exports surge past pre-war levels easing global fuel prices

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged past pre-war levels in late September, potentially easing global oil prices. Provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler shows exports reached 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels per day between September 24 and 29, up from an average of 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that the region has adapted quickly to disruptions, with Saudi Arabia increasing shipments through alternative routes despite security risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

In the UAE, fuel prices hit a four-year high in October 2026, with Super 98 increasing from Dh3.80 to Dh4.40 per litre, Special 95 from Dh3.69 to Dh4.28, and E-Plus 91 from Dh3.61 to Dh4.21. While global oil prices slipped below $100 a barrel before rebounding, analysts suggest that higher supply and easing Middle East tensions could lower fuel prices in November 2026.

Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone, highlighted that while the 'panic premium' in oil prices is easing, structural risks remain due to ongoing attacks on vessels. She warned that a single successful strike on a fully loaded tanker could reverse the repricing. Meanwhile, Jordan Lawrence, CEO of Damisa, noted that higher shipping and insurance costs are straining traders, particularly smaller importers in Africa and Asia.

Despite the rebound in crude exports, refined products like diesel and gasoline remain below normal levels. Reduced Russian product supply and China’s decision to cut October export quotas are exacerbating the tightness. Hansen emphasized that the energy market’s stress has shifted from crude availability to refining capacity and product supply, which could keep diesel and jet fuel prices elevated even if crude prices ease.