Middle East Oil Exports Surpass Pre-War Levels as G7 Releases Reserves

Oil prices dipped in Monday's Asian trading session as Middle Eastern crude exports climbed above pre-war levels, and the Group of Seven (G7) nations announced plans to tap into emergency oil reserves. Brent crude futures for December delivery fell 0.62% to $101.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November dropped 1.2% to $90.11 per barrel.

The G7 agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined fuel products from emergency reserves, aiming to stabilize energy markets amid ongoing disruptions linked to the war involving Iran. A significant portion of the diesel from this release is expected to reach markets within 20 days, according to G7 officials.

Data from oil analytics firm Kpler revealed that Middle Eastern crude exports surpassed pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September, rising to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. The seven-day average reached 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1, exceeding the pre-war average of around 18 million barrels per day. This increase was supported by stronger flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative export routes, despite persistent security risks.

Tensions in the region remained high, with Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement claiming missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and the Khurais area. Saudi authorities have not confirmed these reported attacks. Additionally, Saudi Aramco unexpectedly lowered its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $3 per barrel, signaling efforts to maintain market share amid higher freight costs.

OPEC+ agreed to leave its November production targets unchanged, adding another layer of stability to the market. Analysts noted that the market remains highly sensitive to both supply disruptions and signs of improving exports.