Middle East Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels Amid Maritime Risks

Oil flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels despite ongoing risks to maritime transport. According to JPMorgan analysts, major oil export routes in the region are flowing again, although the recovery has been uneven.

The region's crude oil shipments have reached 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while diesel and gasoline exports have risen to 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels.

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, led mainly by Saudi Arabia, have returned to around 13 million barrels per day, a level last seen in late June. However, analysts caution that this increase should not be interpreted as an improvement in security, but rather reflects the sector's growing ability to operate despite persistent risks.

Goldman Sachs analysts reported oil exports from the Gulf, including 'dark flows' of oil transported through covert or difficult-to-track shipments, reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, close to the 2025 average.