Middle East Oil Flows Near Prewar Levels Amid Measurement Discrepancies

Oil flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels, according to recent estimates. However, discrepancies in measurement scope and methodology lead to varying assessments of the current crude supply situation. A September analysis put Middle East oil flows at 17.5 million barrels per day, representing around 98% of pre-war levels. Fuel exports were estimated at 3 million barrels per day, or roughly 58% of the pre-war average.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to nearly 13 million barrels per day, reaching late-June highs, with Saudi Arabia being the primary contributor to this increase. A separate estimate placed Persian Gulf oil outflows at 23.3 million barrels per day during a recent analysis period, which is roughly in line with the region's 2025 daily average and includes vessels operating without active tracking systems.

The numbers are not directly comparable due to differences in scope and methodology. The higher flows do not necessarily indicate normalized shipping conditions but rather reflect the industry's ability to operate under sustained risk. Earlier estimates suggested a slower recovery, with Middle East crude and condensate production projected at 16.6 million barrels per day in August.