Middle East Oil Flows Rebound to Pre-War Levels Amid Ongoing Risks

Crude oil flows from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels despite ongoing maritime risks, according to JPMorgan analysts. In fact, shipments from the region have reached 17.5 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 98% of pre-war levels.

Diesel and gasoline exports have also seen a significant increase, reaching 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 58% of their pre-war levels.

The Strait of Hormuz, which is mainly dominated by Saudi Arabia's oil exports, has returned to around 13 million barrels per day, a level last seen in late June. However, experts emphasize that this increase should not be misconstrued as an improvement in security, but rather the industry's growing ability to operate despite persistent risks.

Goldman Sachs analysts also reported that oil exports from the Gulf region, including 'dark flows' of oil transported through covert or difficult-to-track shipments, have reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, close to their 2025 average.