Middle East Oil Output Remains Below Pre-Conflict Levels Until 2027

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its latest short-term energy outlook, which forecasts that Middle East oil output will remain below pre-conflict levels by the end of 2027.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure have forced oil producers across the Middle East to sharply reduce production. The cuts reduced global supply and pushed oil prices to multi-year highs.

The EIA estimated that about 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output was shut-in during July, representing over 5% of global consumption. Even if trade patterns normalize by early next year, some producers will struggle to restore output to pre-conflict levels.