Gas prices remain a pressing issue for voters ahead of the midterm elections, with the national average hovering at $4.27 per gallon. This marks a 43% increase since the Iran war began in February, according to AAA data. Analysts predict that prices will stay above $4 a gallon through Election Day on November 3, citing ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine as key factors.
The Brent crude futures price surged above $112 a barrel on Thursday, a level not seen since May. The rise in oil prices comes amid attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including claims by Iran and Houthi militants of strikes on key facilities. Despite some improvement in crude oil exports, damaged refinery infrastructure and heightened transport costs continue to disrupt the supply of refined products.
Experts note that even if a peace deal were reached, gas prices would not drop immediately. Retailers often maintain higher prices to sell through inventory acquired at elevated costs. 'Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms,' said GasBuddy Petroleum Analyst Patrick De Haan in a post on X.
While the outlook for gas prices remains bleak in the short term, some analysts point to seasonal factors that could eventually bring relief. Demand typically decreases in the fall as travel slows down, and refineries shift to a cheaper winter fuel blend. However, for now, supply shortages are expected to keep prices elevated above $4 a gallon in the coming weeks.