Monarch PMS Predicts Bull Case Gold Prices of $5,000-$5,600

A new report from Monarch PMS has laid out three possible scenarios for gold and silver prices, each with different probabilities. In the bull case, which is assigned a 25 per cent probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce, while silver may hit $95-$120 per ounce. This scenario assumes weakness in the labour market, forcing the Fed to ease repo rates and real yields roll over. It also requires institutional reallocation into precious metals to resume and physical tightness in silver to return.

The base case, with a 55 per cent probability, sees gold trading in the range of $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by end-2026. This scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau, and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter.

The bear case, with a 20 per cent probability, sees gold at $3,400-$3,900 per ounce and silver at $45-$55 per ounce if the Fed delivers a rate hike in September, oil falls further, and disinflation turns into demand weakness. The report notes that the principal headwind to higher prices is the 10-year TIPS real yield, which stands at 2.41 per cent.