Morgan Stanley Boosts Brent Forecast Amid Sluggish Middle East Supply Recovery

Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude price forecasts for the coming quarters, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in Middle East supply.

The bank's revised forecasts see Brent oil at $90 per barrel in Q3 2026, $100 in Q4 2026, $95 in Q1 2027, and $90 in Q2 2027, up from its previous assumption of $75 for all these quarters.

Morgan Stanley attributes the slower recovery to a significant decline in oil-on-water and onshore inventories, including those in China.

The bank's revised forecasts come as oil prices slipped over $1 per barrel on Monday due to investors taking profits ahead of an expected announcement from Washington about imposing more sanctions on Iran that may further disrupt supplies from the Middle East.