Morgan Stanley Holds Firm on Oil Price Forecasts Amid Strait Tensions

Morgan Stanley has left its Brent crude oil price forecasts unchanged at $110 a barrel for the second quarter of 2026 and $100 a barrel in the third quarter, with prices falling to $80 a barrel in 2027.

The bank expects oil supply chains to take months to normalize even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Under its base-case scenario, exports through the Strait stay at low levels in April, recover about 70% of lost volumes between May and July, and return to steady-state levels by October.

Oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel as the US Navy prepares to block ships to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures are at $102.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $103.88.