Moscow Blocks Türkiye's Mediation Efforts Amid Black Sea Tensions

Türkiye is stepping up its diplomatic efforts to mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea, but Moscow's signals suggest a hardening of its negotiating position.

The conflict has disrupted food exports and threatens global grain supplies, with strikes on civilian vessels from other countries escalating tensions. Ankara, which controls the Turkish Straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, has positioned itself as a mediator in much of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Moscow in June and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss Black Sea security, confirming Türkiye's readiness to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Ankara has emphasized the need for a mechanism to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea, citing concerns over civilian lives and trade routes.

Ukrainian officials have expressed willingness to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative, but Russian demands unrelated to grain exports complicate the prospects of a new deal. With winter approaching, Moscow's hardening negotiating position ahead of the winter months poses a challenge to Ankara's diplomatic efforts.