Most Critical Minerals Aren't Driven by Renewable Energy

A recent analysis by the Oakland Institute has challenged claims that increased mining is an unavoidable cost of transitioning to renewable energy. The study used International Energy Agency (IEA) data to determine that only 26% of demand for critical minerals like copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths in 2024 was driven by wind, solar, and electric vehicles.

The remaining 74% of demand came from industries such as construction, conventional transportation, industrial machinery, defense, electronics, and others. In fact, uses outside renewable power and electric vehicles accounted for 83% of nickel demand, 79% of magnet rare-earth demand, 71% of copper demand, and 68% of both cobalt and graphite demand in 2024.

The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 roadmap projects that the number of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell cars and vans worldwide will rise from 11 million in 2020 to almost 2 billion in 2050. According to the analysis, electric vehicles would consume 15.7 million metric tons of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths in 2050.

A separate study by researchers at the University of California, Davis found that combining lower vehicle ownership, smaller batteries, and best-case recycling could reduce annual lithium demand in 2050 by as much as 92% compared to the most lithium-intensive combination. The UC Davis model also found that smaller EV batteries could reduce annual lithium demand for U.S. light-duty vehicles by as much as 42% in 2050 even if car dependence continued.

The analysis suggests that most current demand for critical minerals comes from industries outside renewable power and electric vehicles, challenging the notion that increased mining is an unavoidable cost of transitioning to renewable energy.