Natural Gas Prices Rise on Cooler Weather and LNG Demand
Natural gas prices reached $3.11 per MMBtu on 6 October 2026, marking a 1.45% daily increase and a 3.30% weekly gain. The rise comes amid forecasts for cooler weather in the northern and western US from 12 to 15 October, which is expected to boost heating demand. Additionally, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas demand continues to support prices, despite record-high production levels.
The latest data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a 64 billion cubic foot storage build for the week ended 25 September, below the five-year average of 80 billion. This indicates that the inventory surplus is gradually narrowing. However, Lower 48 production remained robust, averaging a record 113.3 billion cubic feet a day in September.
EQT (NYSE:EQT) and Tourmaline Oil (TSX:TOU) are two companies closely watched in this market. EQT's second-quarter sales volume reached 634 billion cubic feet equivalent, with 2026 production guidance raised to 2,375-2,450 Bcfe. Its average realized price was $2.65 per thousand cubic feet equivalent, well below the Henry Hub benchmark. Tourmaline Oil, a gas-weighted Canadian producer, realized $3.12 per thousand cubic feet against a much lower AECO benchmark of $1.66, aided by hedges locked in at $4.97 through 2026.
Looking ahead, natural gas prices could firm further if storage builds stay below average, LNG feedgas demand keeps rising, or the mid-October cold snap materializes as forecast. Conversely, prices could soften if production remains at record levels, weather turns mild again, or the surplus to the five-year average widens. Key events to watch include the EIA weekly storage report on 8 October and third-quarter results from EQT and Tourmaline Oil.