Indian equities are entering November 2026 after a period of weakness, marked by foreign investor outflows, high crude oil prices, a weakening rupee, and global uncertainty. The recent market correction has raised questions about whether the Nifty 50 can recover in the final two months of the year or if more volatility is ahead.
Historical data from 2001 to 2025 suggests reasons for optimism. November and December have been the strongest months for the Nifty 50, with average returns of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The index ended November in positive territory in 15 of the past 25 years, and December saw gains in 17 of those years, according to NSE data analyzed by SAMCO Research.
With Diwali falling on November 8 this year, festive demand and improved consumption sentiment could support equities. However, experts caution that global headwinds, including foreign portfolio investor outflows and elevated crude oil prices, may continue to weigh on the market. A sustained recovery would depend on improved corporate earnings and a revival in foreign investor participation.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 has historically closed November in positive territory in 10 of the past 20 years, with an average gain of 4.94%. The Bank Nifty has shown even stronger seasonal performance, ending November higher in 14 of the past 20 years, with an average return of 6.45%. The broader market, including midcap and smallcap indices, has also historically outperformed during the month.