Nigeria Aims for Oil Production Rebound, Faces Skepticism Over Ambitious Target
Nigeria's oil production has been in decline since its peak of 2.58 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2007.
The country, Africa's largest oil producer, saw a significant drop to 1.67 million bpd in August this year due to various factors such as pipeline vandalism, crude oil theft, underinvestment, and asset divestment by international majors.
The global oil price collapse between 2014 and 2016, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, further exacerbated the decline. The Petroleum Industry Bill was not passed into law until July 2021, which led to regulatory uncertainty and a halt in investment in exploration and production.
The current government has introduced several executive orders aimed at boosting investor confidence and repositioning the sector. President Bola Tinubu's administration is seeking to boost oil production to 3 million bpd by 2030, but experts believe this target may be unrealistic given the country's history of struggling to increase output.
Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) declared a state of emergency in crude oil production in July 2024 and launched Project 1 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day, targeting a production level of 2.5 million bpd by 2026. However, the country's current output is nowhere near 2 million bpd, which was last seen in May 2020.