Nigeria’s Wheat, Rice, and Corn Production to Decline in 2026-27

Nigeria is facing a significant drop in wheat, rice, and corn production for the 2026-27 period, primarily due to rising rural insecurity, higher input costs, and reduced farmer incentives, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat production is expected to decrease by 8% to 120,000 tonnes, with consumption also projected to decline. This reduction is attributed to lower imports and diminished consumer purchasing power. Imports for 2026-27 are estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, a 5% decrease from the previous year, largely due to higher import prices and shipping bottlenecks, particularly from Russia, Nigeria’s second-largest wheat supplier.

Corn production is forecasted to fall by 5% to 11.1 million tonnes, driven by higher operational expenses and volatile farmgate prices. Despite this, corn consumption is expected to rise by 3% to 12.1 million tonnes, primarily due to lower domestic corn prices and increasing demand from poultry, aquaculture, and livestock producers. Imports are projected to surge by 500% to 900,000 tonnes, partly to help curb food inflation.

Rice production is estimated to decrease by 6% to 8.8 million tonnes, as lower rice prices discourage farmers from expanding production. However, consumption is expected to increase by 6% to 9.1 million tonnes, with imports estimated at 3.1 million tonnes, an 11% increase compared with 2025-26.