North Sea Drilling Expansion Fuels Climate Concerns

The UK government's decision to allow more North Sea drilling for oil and gas is facing scrutiny from climate experts. The initial reports suggested a broad change of direction, but now it seems that the new prime minister, Andy Burnham, will take a 'pragmatic' approach.

Proponents argue that producing domestic gas can reduce UK emissions compared to importing liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, this reasoning is flawed from a climate-only perspective. Additional North Sea supply would lower market prices, leading to increased consumption and higher global oil consumption.

Studies have shown that curtailing an oil barrel reduces global lifecycle emissions by 40-50% of the gross emissions. This suggests that expanding production would be counterproductive in addressing climate change.

On the other hand, some experts argue that additional gas could ease the constraint on energy availability during the transition to clean energy. The Jackdaw gas field is an example of this argument, as it claims to begin producing 6% of UK gas at peak by October 2026. However, unconditional production may support extra ordinary consumption rather than construction of the clean system.

Another factor to consider is that climate policy must survive elections and price shocks. The costs of transitioning to net-zero emissions can be immediate and highly visible, while the benefits are global and arrive over decades. This creates an obvious political vulnerability, as seen in the French 'gilets jaunes' protests.