October WASDE Report to Impact U.S. Grain Markets

The upcoming October WASDE report, scheduled for release on October 9, is highly anticipated by U.S. farmers and market analysts. The report will provide updated estimates on corn, soybean, and wheat markets, incorporating new data from the September 30 Grain Stocks and Small Grains 2026 Summary reports.

In the September WASDE report, the USDA adjusted its estimates, showing a decrease in new-crop corn ending stocks by 86 million bushels to 1.567 billion bushels. Soybean ending stocks declined by 10 million bushels to 310 million, while wheat ending stocks remained unchanged at 717 million bushels. The USDA also lowered its corn yield estimate by 2.2 bushels per acre, while the soybean yield increased slightly by 0.1 bushels per acre.

For corn, the report will focus on export commitments, which are currently at 23% of the forecast, below the five-year average of 31%. The September Grain Stocks report revealed higher-than-expected corn stocks, suggesting a potential increase in beginning stocks for the 2026/2027 crop year. Analysts believe there is still potential for the USDA to lower its new-crop corn yield estimate based on early harvest results, which could impact ending stocks.

Soybean export sales commitments are currently at 48% of the forecast, exceeding the five-year average of 38%. The September Grain Stocks report showed lower-than-expected soybean stocks, which could reduce beginning stocks for the 2026/2027 crop year. Analysts expect no material adjustment to new-crop soybean production but anticipate a possible decline in ending stocks if the USDA maintains its current yield estimate.

Wheat export sales are trailing the five-year average, with current sales at 46% of the forecast. The September Grain Stocks report showed wheat stocks in line with trade expectations. Analysts expect a slight increase in overall wheat production but anticipate a potential reduction in the export forecast due to slower sales.

Historical data indicates that market volatility on the October WASDE report day tends to be above average for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Corn has a 57% likelihood of a negative market reaction, while soybeans have a 57% likelihood of a positive reaction. Wheat has a 71% likelihood of a negative reaction, making it the second most volatile.