Oil Drops on Supply Cuts Gold Declines After Weak US Jobs Data
Oil and gold markets are facing key developments this week, with economic data set to influence price movements. USOIL prices fell sharply after Saudi Arabia cut its November crude prices for Asian buyers, signaling recovering supply flows. The move came despite ongoing conflicts in Yemen, which pose risks to energy infrastructure. OPEC+ has decided to maintain production quotas for November, but supply disruptions in critical regions like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain potential upside risks for oil prices.
Technically, crude oil is under short-term bearish pressure, with prices dropping toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $88 after failing to break above $93. The 50-day moving average around $88 acts as a key support zone. A hold above this level could trigger a rebound toward $93, while a break below it may expose the 50% Fibonacci level at $84.
Meanwhile, gold held near $4,150 after its biggest weekly decline since June, as weaker US jobs data reduced expectations of another near-term Fed rate hike. September payrolls rose by just 29,000, lowering the probability of an October rate hike to around 20%. Gold remains under bearish pressure, trading around $4,160 after breaking below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $4,245. The 78.6% Fibonacci support at $4,130 is a key level to watch. A sustained break below this could expose the $4,000 area, while a recovery above $4,245 would signal improving momentum.
Key economic events this week include the US Services PMI on Monday, FOMC minutes on Wednesday, German balance of trade on Thursday, and the Canadian unemployment rate on Friday. The FOMC minutes are particularly significant, as investors seek clues about future monetary policy directions following the weaker-than-expected NFP figure last week.