Oil Execs See Boom as Iran Tensions Rise

US oil executives are optimistic about domestic crude production despite ongoing tensions in Iran. A recent survey by the Dallas Fed found that 43% of respondents expect US crude output to rise by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year due to the conflict.

The Energy Information Administration forecasts US crude output at 13.51 million bpd for 2026, compared with 13.58 million bpd last year. However, many executives believe that at least 90% of Gulf production shut in will return to market eventually.

When asked when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would return to normal levels, 20% said by next month, while 39% said August. The remaining respondents predicted either November or later.

Around a third of executives surveyed expect shipping costs from the Gulf to increase after the conflict ends, with more than one-third saying costs will jump between $2 and $4 per barrel.