Oil Executives Warn of Years of Market Turmoil and High Prices
The global oil market faces prolonged turmoil, with executives warning that high prices will persist well beyond 2026. Key factors include shipping bottlenecks, reduced refinery output, and depleted inventories that will take years to replenish. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which began in February 2026, has disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have further exacerbated production and export challenges.
Petronas CEO Tengku Muhammad Taufik described the situation as 'bedlam' for the remainder of the year and possibly into 2027. Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser noted that refilling global stockpiles could take up to two years, even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He highlighted that 3 billion barrels have been lost since the conflict began, with 1 billion barrels withdrawn from global inventories to meet emergency demand.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah emphasized a shortage of 6 million barrels per day of refined products due to the war's impact. He pointed out that global refining capacity is insufficient to compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern production. Kuwait's crude oil exports have remained stable at around 1 million barrels per day, despite a drop in production from 2.6 million to 2 million barrels per day.
ConocoPhillips' Executive Chair Ryan Lance predicted that global oil demand may not recover until 2028 or 2029. He forecasted that the US benchmark WTI crude price floor could rise to around $70 per barrel, with a mid-cycle price range of $65 to $70. Strong prices could push US oil production to exceed 14 million to 14.5 million barrels per day. Brent crude futures were trading just above $100 per barrel, while WTI was near $90 per barrel on Monday.