Oil Flows Bounce Back but Safety Concerns Remain

Crude oil prices continued their downward trend on Wednesday and Thursday, following a sharp increase in September. According to reports from JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Kpler, oil flows out of the Persian Gulf have largely recovered to pre-war levels.

Kpler reported that Hormuz oil export figures are now close to 80% of pre-war levels, while JP Morgan estimates exports via the chokepoint at around 98% of pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs even claimed that oil flows out of the Middle East have reached an average of 23.3 million barrels per day, matching the rate predicted for 2025.

Saudi Arabia's oil exports were also noted to have increased in September, with the country exporting more oil than it did during the same month last year. However, Goldman Sachs' commodity analysts cautioned that even though oil flows are improving, safety concerns remain a major issue in the region.

Despite reports of Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which were initially reported by UK Maritime Trade Operations but not picked up by major corporate media, crude oil prices remained unaffected. The improved oil flows out of the Persian Gulf are attributed to ship-to-ship transfers and alternative routes.