Oil Prices Dip as G7 Releases Stocks and Middle East Exports Rise

Oil prices declined on Monday as increased crude exports from the Middle East and the G7's decision to release emergency oil stocks boosted global supply. Brent crude futures dropped 66 cents, or 0.65%, to $101.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 95 cents, or 1.03%, to $90.12 a barrel. The G7's move to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude came after pressure from US President Donald Trump, easing some supply concerns despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region.

Shipping data revealed that Middle Eastern crude exports had already risen above pre-war levels in the final week of September, despite attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer noted that the G7's strategic reserve release and the return of Saudi export volumes to pre-war levels are tempering oil prices, even as risks of further damage to Gulf energy infrastructure remain.

Tensions escalated as the Houthi movement claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area, in response to Saudi-led strikes in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed these attacks. Meanwhile, Yemen's Saudi-backed government announced a major military campaign to retake areas controlled by the Houthis. Additionally, Aramco unexpectedly cut November crude oil prices for Asia to six-year lows.

ING analysts noted that Brent prices remain above $100 per barrel due to persistent geopolitical tensions and rising attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf. OPEC+ postponed a review of 2027 oil output quotas due to disruptions caused by the Iran war, which has thrown future production estimates into uncertainty. In Europe, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicated that Kyiv will intensify attacks on Russian oil refineries.