Oil Prices Dip as Middle East Exports and G7 Stockpile Release Ease Supply Fears

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday as supply concerns in the Middle East eased slightly, though lingering security risks kept losses in check. Brent crude futures fell 83 cents, or 0.8%, to $99.49 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined $1, or 1.1%, to $88.43 a barrel.

Shipping data revealed that Middle Eastern crude exports have surpassed pre-war levels on several days in late September, thanks to alternative routes and logistical adjustments. However, Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, cautioned that this doesn’t signal a full normalization of supply, pointing to recent attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz that continue to elevate costs and risks.

Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, surged to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, driven by a recovery in Saudi exports despite ongoing attacks on the kingdom’s oil infrastructure. Meanwhile, Iranian exports dropped to zero due to a U.S. blockade. The G7’s decision to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves further eased supply worries, following pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen persists, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces advanced to retake areas around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting the Houthis to claim attacks on key Saudi locations, including an Aramco refinery in Rabigh.