Oil Prices Revised Upward Amid Ongoing Gulf Export Disruption

Oil price forecasts have been revised upward for 2026 due to ongoing disruption to Gulf exports. Analysts surveyed in September expect Brent crude to average $89.05 a barrel, while US crude is forecasted to reach $83.90. These predictions range from $77.27 to $97.60 per barrel.

Several analysts believe that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has led to a permanent impairment of shipping conditions. This will result in slow and limited recovery of oil exports, which have recovered to around 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week. Exports doubled in September, according to Goldman Sachs.

Chinese inventories are seen as one of the most significant uncertainties for the market in the coming year. Despite having accumulated large stockpiles before the conflict, China has begun to draw down its reserves as imports have risen during the past two months, reaching nearly 9 million barrels per day in August.