Oil Prices Rise Amid Renewed Disruptions to Persian Gulf Exports

Oil prices have been pushed upwards by renewed disruptions to Persian Gulf exports following fresh tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf exports have slipped back below 50% of pre-war levels, down from over 80% recovery after a US-Iran MoU in June.

The bank also warned of two-sided risks to its Brent oil forecast, with prices potentially exceeding $110 by year-end if Gulf export recovery continues to stall. Alternatively, prices could fall into the $60s by year-end if regional tensions ease and production recovers more quickly than expected.

Goldman Sachs highlighted that any further recovery in Gulf exports is likely to be uneven due to the risk of additional attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure. The bank estimated that the reinstated US blockade of Iranian ports could cut Iranian exports by 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day (bpd).